Textile raw materials will be how to interpret next year?

2016-12-26 09:20| 发布者: admin| 查看: 817| 评论: 0

简介:2016 textile industry is a difficult year, due to the adjustment of reserve cotton policy, leading to cotton prices surging, prices continued to rise, although the middle of the price decline, but ove ...


2016 textile industry is a difficult year, due to the adjustment of reserve cotton policy, leading to cotton prices surging, prices continued to rise, although the middle of the price decline, but overall or continued strength, cotton prices continued to rise driven Other textile raw materials prices, viscose, polyester, nylon and other textile raw materials also continued to rise, coupled with the G20 summit and the arrival of the strongest environmental protection measures, but also makes the chemical fiber raw material prices remain high.


 


From the entire textile industry, in December into the off-season demand, prices will rise after the first, the textile index is expected to top 870 points, the lowest 840 points. According to monitoring, chemical fiber plate collective rise in November. PTA spot quotation at the end of November 4959 yuan / ton, up 3.38%, PTA futures was ascribed to 5360 yuan / ton; domestic ethylene glycol market since October, prices rose more than 18%. Polyester filament by the upstream PTA, ethylene glycol prices soaring support, prices continued to rise, a record annual high. 16 years immediately ended, for 17 years of textile market, cotton, viscose market is how to interpret?


 


Cotton supply and demand "tight balance"


 


Cotton prices in November rose steadily, once exceeded 16021 yuan / ton high. Recently, the domestic cotton market finally stabilized. As of 19, the Xinjiang region spot cargo delivery price "double 29", "double 30" price in the 16000-16200 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price can be discussed locally. Machine picking cotton Xinjiang site delivery price "double 28" in 15500-15600 yuan / ton. Xinjiang, Xinjiang, in particular, has recently issued subsidies for cotton, cotton to Xinjiang to bring good news. As of 19th, the Yellow River basin, the Yangtze River cotton 3128 large package of cotton in the 15700-15800 yuan / ton, packet of cotton price 14500-15300 yuan / ton, prices fluctuated slightly, the overall stable.


 


From the survey, the current state of mind within the cotton business differences are relatively large, some ginning factories to seize the sale, for the end of February 2017 to achieve the "double junction zero"; some ginning plant is Wujin "double 28" "Double 2", "double 30" of cotton resources (including machine cotton), short-term inward transfer library, offer the enthusiasm of the sale is not high, waiting for March 2017 after the domestic cotton price "not Ming has been a soaring "The opportunity to come. For the 2016/17 annual cotton prices, some institutions, cotton enterprises that break 17,000 yuan / ton, 18,000 yuan / ton probability is relatively large, before the Spring Festival is cotton prices consolidation bottom stage, the market will be March 2017 Cotton, polyester staple fiber and other raw materials will promote the entire textile and garment industry chain before the line.


 


From the relevant government departments, research institutions and enterprises feedback information, 2016/17 annual domestic cotton supply and demand "tight balance" is a consensus, but "tight" to what extent? China's cotton balance account how to count? For supply, it is easier to estimate:


 


1, production: we have a bottom, because with the acquisition of cotton, processing, public inspection progress, 2016 annual cotton production estimates of the error is getting smaller and smaller, 470-480 million tons of production interval has gradually been the industry Recognized and used.


 


2, import: 2017 cotton import quota also need not guess, only 89.4 million tons of 1% tariff quota, processing trade and sliding quasi-tariff quota issuance is expected to have burst, even with the largest import volume to calculate, 2016/17 annual cotton import The total will not exceed 1.2 million tons (from January to October 2016, China's total imports of 696,300 tons of cotton, of which imports in October 41,300 tons, so the end of September the remaining 2016 quota of about 300,000 tons).


 


3, reserve cotton out: According to the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance notice shows that this year, the new cotton market (until the end of February next year) does not arrange cotton into the round, 2017 cotton reserve sales will start from March 6, Time tentatively scheduled for the end of August, the daily number of listed sales by 30,000 tons of temporary arrangements, taking into account the pre-flow of the situation may occur, so if 20,000 tons per day turnover projections, turnover of about 250-260 million tons of turnover resources (Expected to be less than 35% flow rate), then the total supply of 470 +120 +250 = 840 tons.


 


2016/17 annual domestic cotton supply or greater than the need for 50-60 million tons (such as reserve cotton auction hot, volume or to 300 million tons, more than the need for nearly 1 million tons), but taking into account the quality of cotton this year can be spinning The quality of Xinjiang cotton in the high-quality Xinjiang cotton or in May after a rebound in the possibility of a rebound in cotton prices in the first half of this year, .


 


Viscose line in the existing production conditions difficult to rise or down


 


Viscose staple fiber as a cotton chemical fiber material, regenerated cellulose fiber, in recent years, worth by leaps and bounds up. Even once appeared sticky short cotton instead of speech. The industry bold prediction: 2020-2021 period, China's viscose staple fiber production will be more than Chinese cotton! So, viscose staple fiber will replace cotton? 2017 sticky short market how to interpret?


 


Shandong, as the gathering place of China's spinning industry, is also an active area of cotton and cotton yarn trade. The core lies in the semi-finished products processing and manufacturing of the textile industry chain. The upstream and downstream industries are mature. The local fiber enterprises mainly produce conventional products. And other products in the 1-2 million tons of annual output level. The stock is relatively tight, at the end of the downstream demand, capital, prices and other factors relatively high under the stage of adjustment, but in the cost of raising, demand growth, cotton easy to rise and difficult to fall, etc. Against the background of the market situation in 2017 is relatively good. The historical trajectory tells us that all development must be regular to be found. We first look at the past four years, the trend of viscose staple fiber, in fact, in October each year viscose staple fiber prices have been rising in the trend has not risen, mainly because of viscose staple fiber product characteristics. As the viscose staple fiber woven fabric itself is more cool, such as people cotton, bamboo fiber fabric, modal fabric, downstream procurement for the production of spring and summer clothing. Therefore, when the market into the thick fabric sales season, as raw material viscose staple fiber market demand as before, from a certain extent, dragged down its price trend.


 


We are concerned about the relationship between viscose and cotton, review the past 10 years, 20 years, cotton and viscose price trend is very close, but the cotton production capacity is no longer growing, if we need more comfortable fiber, and cotton performance Close to the fiber, there is no doubt that glue is the best choice. From 2005 to 2010, viscose staple fiber prices have been higher than the price of cotton, but the state purchasing and storage policy began to see the sticky short price all the way down, but the cotton price has remained at a high position, the recent We began to pay attention to cotton futures, and previously concerned about this very little, many people hope that the price of cotton futures will affect the viscose market, Xiaobian that the glue will be based on the downstream market development, product development, out of their own market. Perhaps the next few years, the price of viscose will be higher than cotton, which is a normal phenomenon.


 


In general, the current high profit viscose industry, may promote other people to enter the industry to increase production capacity, increased supply, the same demand, the prices will continue to fall, but the next year and a half And will not happen. So Xiaobian is expected to believe that the average price of viscose next year will be higher than this year.


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